Dissecting the VP picks

Craig Crawford, who blogs daily at cqpolitics.com, is one of Washington, DC's, most popular news commentators. He is the author of a new book, The Politics of Life: 25 Rules for Survival in a Brutal and Manipulative World. His first book is Attack The Messenger: How Politicians Turn You Against The Media. Crawford was hailed by the Washington Post as "one of the capital's most celebrated journalists" in a profile published May 18, 2000.

This discussion is over, but please read the transcript below.

• Celeste from Dallas: Reading the latest polls, I see that McCain is gaining in almost every catagory. Do you believe that if obama really wants to win, he must pick Hillary or Biden?
• Craig Crawford: Don't think running mates usually make a campaign, but they can break them. So I'm not convinced a particular person truly makes the difference between winning and losing. We really haven't seen that since LBJ and JFK in 1960.
• Balliett from Vermont: Obama's VP short list: Why do none of them bring him either geographical or voting bloc advantages? Strange to me. Can you explain?
• Craig Crawford: Running mates haven't been picked for geography for a long time. It is usually more about achieving synergy for personal chemistry or maybe a bit of issue diversity. Appealing to certain voting blocs might be a factor, but I've always believed the presidential nominee has to do that on his own.
• Larry from Clarksburg: What should Obama and McCain have as their respective purpose for thier VP pick?
• Craig Crawford: Well it sure ought to be someone who would make a good president. In a perfect world, that's really all that ought to matter.
• marcia from calilornia: What do you think is the main thing that Obama should be looking for in a VP at this point, since he seems to be static or lagging in the polls recently?
• Craig Crawford: I think Obama needs someone who provides a comfort zone for voters who worry about his readiness to protect national security, run a war against terrorism and command the military.
• Jamie, Tacoma: Of the front runners for the nomination, which one of the boring alternatives do you consider the most competent and why?
• Craig Crawford: Joe Biden
• Matt from Oak Park: When and why did Bill Richardson drop off the radar for VP?
• Craig Crawford: Don't think the beard helped, do you? Seriously though, a Latino VP might be too much diversity for one ticket. And wow, the Clinton folk sure are mad at him for perceived double-dealing when he asked Bill to a fundraiser and then later endorsed Obama.
• Keith from Dublin, Ireland: Are the voters likely to take the Vice Presidential nominee much more seriously in their deliberations on how to vote following Mr Cheney's strong influence (relative to most of his predecessors) over the past two terms? And will it be even more important for the GOP given Senator McCain's age?
• Craig Crawford: Excellent point about Cheney. You'd think his pivotal role would give rise to more concern about the next VP. But this time let's hope their location is disclosed more often. And yes, McCain's age -- suggesting a one term presidency -- most definitely makes his running mate a critical choice.
• Jack from Texas: John Kerry advised Obama to pick someone he trusted, how important is that in relation to other considerations, as vote delivering, ability to govern, political charisma and so on?
• Craig Crawford: Regarding Kerry, I always thought he did not pick the running mate he really wanted -- which makes that advice especially interesting. I think he wanted Dick Gephardt, a closer confident than Edwards. But yes, the relationship goes better if the prez and vp mates at least know each other.
• Chloe from Houston: Craig, How can the fact that Hillary is interesting be a curse? She had 18 million people vote for her. If a little of the spotlight is taken off Obama during the election, because of Hillary's popularity, why does that matter as long as he can get elected? Once he's elected, he'll be in complete control again.
• Craig Crawford: Well, it's sort of like how David Lee Roth wouldn't let anybody on his stage who had better hair. You don't want someone who steals so much limelight.
• panda from DC: Why does Obama have to pick his VP first? Once he does -- do you think McCain might change his mind?
• Craig Crawford: The way these things work the incumbent party gets to hold the last convention. That is by tradition, not by law. So I assume the Republicans could have chosen to go first. But with Democrats forced to go first, they must choose their running mate first.
• Renee from NH: Please expand on why you think Joe Biden is the most competent of the current candidates being mentioned as the possible VP pick.
• Craig Crawford: Biden not only has the most experience in national security affairs but actually knows how to talk about in a way that the "average Joe" can understand. His personal relations with scores of world leaders could help smooth Obama's transition. And, finally, we learned one thing this summer that we didn't know before about Biden -- he can actually keep his mouth shut. The best sign that he's a serious contender for VP -- and knows it -- is that he has kept himself out of the limelight these past months.
• Beth from Missouri: What do you think the effect would be on Clinton's Presidential chances if she was picked to be the vice-presidential candidate this time around, if Obama won or if he lost?
• Craig Crawford: The trouble for her is that no matter what happens -- Obama wins or loses with or without her on the ticket -- there are those who will blame her for something. Still, the obvious worst case scenario for her is that Obama wins without her on the ticket. Everything else puts her in the driver's seat for next time.
• Tom from Belgium: Is Barack Obama in deep trouble with all the PUMA and Denver Group activism?
• Craig Crawford: Yes, that has the potential to distract the media at the convention. Which puts the pressure on Obama camp to keep our attention focused on other things.
• richard from charleston: Do you see the roll call resolution for the convention as a sign that Hillary and Obama have something worked out between them?
• Craig Crawford: Well, if you consider Obama blinking first a sign of working something out. I don't see any good news for Obama in setting up a situation that reminds us all how close this nomination really was.
• Dendroglia from New York: Good afternoon Craig ... Who do you believe would be the best VP choice for McCain?
• Craig Crawford: Mitt Romney
• Matt from Oak Park: Thanks Craig, I had discounted the Clinton supporter anger at Richardson. Do you think that Kaine really has a chance or does he not bring enough to the table?
• Craig Crawford: There is a problem with Kaine, which has to do with internal Virginia politics. Democrats do not have much of a "bench" in the state. Taking their popular governor out of in-state play potentially harms the party's recent progress in statewide races. And seems to me that Kaine can do as much for an Obama Virginia win as governor. Making him running mate might not really up the ante that much.
• Lane from Alabama: How important is personal chemistry in picking a VP?
• Craig Crawford: It ought to be extremely important. The Kerry-Edwards ticket is an example of a chemistry breakdown that hurt their chances. The Clintons and the Gores in 1992 is an example of winning chemistry -- that is, until they started hating each other.
• Matt in Brooklyn: Do you have any feel for the relationship between Obama and Biden? Pictures I saw last night made it look very icy.
• Craig Crawford: They really don't know each other well, though I'm told Obama really does admire Biden. If you remember, at the beginning of the campaign Biden talked about Obama as though he were a complete stranger (which is when Biden gaffed about "articulate" and "clean cut").
• Alicia from Stafford: What about Wes Clark? He's not a Senator, he's got the military gravitas, Clinton cred (since he supported Hillary), not too exciting to steal the limelight, no previous plagiarism, executive ability (having been a General), big safety factor.
• Craig Crawford: There was talk of him before he seemed to diminish McCain getting shot down and years in captivity in Vietnam. In fact, he won our CQ Politics VP Madness earlier this summer. But once the Obama camp distanced itself from Clark's McCain comments, he was dropped from the list.
• Julie, Kansas CIty: Craig, Could Daschle be a dark horse in VP run?
• Craig Crawford: So dark we cannot even see him.
• Blonde wino from NM: Craig...has anyone ever turned down the VP spot?
• Craig Crawford: I do remember poor George McGovern having to walk the streets asking complete strangers to run with him, after so many had turned him down.
• Bridget in DC: Do you agree with those who think Bill Clinton would be a problem for a President Obama if Hillary was the VP? Will he be any less of a problem for a President Obama if someone else is VP?
• Craig Crawford: Bill did show appeal to working-class white voters in later days of the primaries, but his press relations are so toxic now that I cannot imagine him being much help unless they tie him up in the basement somewhere. And as far as an Obama presidency goes, I wouldn't want to be Secretary of State with Bill Clinton roaming the world.
• Julie, Kansas city: Craig, It is being reported that Lieberman is being vetted for McCain. Would the GOP base accept Lieberman?
• Craig Crawford: I am unclear whether it is even legal in some states. I have heard that McCain staff are asking a few state leaders about the legalities of a non-party member on the ticket. Still, I think this Lieberman (and Tom Ridge) talk is a head fake to make conservatives more accepting of Romney. Since Romney is a recent pro-lifer, for instance, he is not a favorite with evangelicals. But scaring them a bit with speculation about pro-choicers could give them relief if Romney is chosen.
  
  Today, the Republicans announced that Lieberman would speak on the first night of the convention in St. Paul.
  
• Chloe from Houston: If Hillary were the nominee, would that quiet down the PUMA ("Party Unity My Ass")  noise at the convention?
• Craig Crawford: Well, there are some diehards who will be satisfied with nothing less than a Clinton takeover of the presidential nomination at the convention. But yes, choosing her as VP ought to calm most. Then Obama would have to worry about the Clinton haters in his fold going ballistic.
• Beth from Missouri: If you were Obama, who would you pick and why?
• Craig Crawford: Hillary. I can see her as the Democratic Dick Cheney, running things on Capitol Hill and taking hits while Obama enjoys the stage.
• Ed in Troy: You suggested Romney for McCain. Do you think McCain can win Michigan without Romney, if so what else does Romney do for the ticket?
• Craig Crawford: It didn't help McCain's chances in the MI primary when he told auto workers that their jobs are gone and they're not coming back. Romney's family and business ties to Michigan would make all the difference, in my opinion.
• Jack from MO: Craig,
   Coming from the heartland I found Romney less than impressive. What does he bring to the ticket? Jack
• Craig Crawford: Well, for starters, I never think there is a perfect running mate who guarantees victory. My view is that VP choices either have no effect or a harmful effect. On Romney, I think he does no harm, possibly helps on economic issues, looks the part and, most importantly, NEVER goes off script.
• Ed from PA: What might you think of Bob Kerrey as a possible running mate?
• Craig Crawford: His time has come and gone. Also, last year, when he was endorsing Clinton, he incurred the Obama camp's wrath raising the specter of Barack's middle name, Hussein.
  
• Emily in Schenectady: The far right was enamored of Huckabee. Is he in the running, or has he dropped off the map completely?
• Craig Crawford: Huckabee was on the rise at one time -- and won our CQ Politics VP Madness contest -- but he frightened some GOPers a few months ago when cracking a joke about Obama ducking gun shots.
• Mitch from Maryland: I'm concerned that if Biden is the VP pick that his almost completely silver hair (including the plugs) will highlight how little experience Obama has in comparison - in other words will it hurt as much as help?
• Craig Crawford: Ah, you raise the "overcompensation" issue. A good point, indeed. In other words, if Obama reaches too hard to find someone with more experience it very well could emphasize his own lack of it. But, haven't you notice that Barack's hair is getting more gray?
• Leslie--Enfield, Ct.: What is the history of "short list" considerations becoming the running mate?
• Craig Crawford: Fairly good track record on that -- and when they veer from the short list, they often regret it. Two words: Dan Quayle.
• Alicia from Stafford: Craig -- Did you sign up for the text message announcement of Obama's pick -- or are you content to find out after everyone else?
• Craig Crawford: No, I did not. So revoke my press credentials. I am content to learn about it with the civilian world. But I am counting on the relentless guardians at Trail Mix to keep me posted.
• John from Minnesota: What do you think the chances are that either of them picks a name that the media isn't bandying around? Who would you consider a dark horse that no one is talking about?
• Craig Crawford: My hunch is that McCain is the most likely to get weird on us. He loves to be different. It is his nature. Obama strikes me as loyal to his process and unlikely to surprise.
• Nat in Dallas: Do you think it is necessary to pick a seasoned VP candidate over a Sebelius or Kaine? The only reason I voted for Obama in the primary was beacuse I was inspired by the "change" movement.
• Craig Crawford: You'd think the change "brand" would be important in designing this ticket, but consider that Obama might have tapped out the change market and, to win, he now needs to broaden his base to voters who are afraid of change.
• Larry from Clarksburg: Of the viable VP candidates on the dem side, (Hillary excluded) other than Biden, do any of them have the ability Bill Pess noted this morning to credibly refute the Republicans?
• Craig Crawford: The remainder of the short list are not known for being attack dogs. Can't really think of an alternative, unless you broaden the list to Richardson (or Kucinich).
• Willie from Ark: What do you think Hillary's chances are to be the vp candidate, and do you think she wants it?
• Craig Crawford: Unless it has been a head fake, the Obama camp has spent all summer telegraphing that it will not be her. And yes, I do think she wants it.
  
  This has been great fun, folks. Thanks so much for playing. And visit us often on Trail Mix, where the discussions never die.