CQ's Election Impact Conference

Hosted every other year since 1980, the CQ Election Impact Conference includes some of the country’s top political analysts. Speakers include: Craig Crawford, CBS, MSNBC and Congressional Quarterly; Ron Elving, National Public Radio; Andy Kohut, Pew Research Center for the People and the Press; Thomas E. Mann, The Brookings Institution; Norman J. Ornstein, American Enterprise Institute; Alice Rivlin, The Brookings Institution; Mark Shields, PBS NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

This discussion is over, but please read the transcript below.

• Ken Sands, moderator: Welcome to today's CQ Election Impact Conference. We're live here today at the Ronald Reagan building on Pennsylvania Ave.
• Election Impact Guests:

  Greg Giroux of CQ Politics points out that for the first time in the 150-year co-existence of the Democratic and Republican parties, there are no Republicans members in the House from New England, as Chris Shays of Connecticut lost in his re-election bid. And 26 of the 29 House seats in New York are in Democratic hands. Meanwhile, the Republican Party continues to dominate the Southern states. This geographic distribution in the House is almost a mirror image of 50 years ago, when moderate Republicans dominated New England, and conservative Democrats dominated the South.

• Ken Sands, moderator: Doug Pinkham, president of the non-partisan Public Affairs Council and CQ's partner in the Election Impact Conference, is talking about the serious issues that, in some ways have overtaken the election.
• Election Impact Guests:

  Mr. Pinkham believes that President-elect Obama's disciplined campaign will carry over into a disciplined administration, but he will have a difficult time managing the expectations of interest groups and his millions of donors.

   

  Specifically, unions and anti-war groups will be the toughest for Obama. Trade is a difficult long-term issue. Unions want to end the North American Free Trade Agreement because of their belief that it's caused job loss in the U.S. Obama has said he wants "fair trade" and to "amend" NAFTA.

   

  Anti-war groups will not be happy if Obama does not scale back war efforts in Iraq soon. Obama has been cautious to keep expectations in check by being vague about details of troop withdrawal.

• Ken Sands, moderator: Question from the audience: What comes first, second, third as the administration prioritizes for the first 100 days?
• Election Impact Guests:

  Doug Pinkham: Number one is stabilizing the economy and world markets. Obama will name a world-class financial team and allow them to take the lead. Number two will be dealing with foreign affairs and re-establishing America's leadership role in the world. This will be essential to building a new coalition to deal with the Middle East. Number three will be pushing forward transportation funding to deal with infrastructure issues and create somewhat of a public works program. Energy legislation will probably be introduced concurrent with transportation funding legislation. 

• Ken Sands, moderator: Question from the audience: You spoke about the rebranding of the Republican Party. What is the thinking of Democrats about the mandate they have? Will the leadership move more to the left despite many gains in the moderate wing of the Democratic Party?
• Election Impact Guests: Craig Crawford: Veteran Democratic leaders understand that they best not overreach. They remember Bill Clinton's leftward moves early in his first term and how it led to a disastrous midterm election in 1994.
• Ken Sands, moderator: Question from the audience: Since it seems to be about the economy/money, why not marry it to some concrete initiatives to get us disengaged from Iraq sooner rather than later?
• Election Impact Guests:

  Doug Pinkham: I assume you're referring to the surplus in Iraq's economy due to oil profits. Now that oil prices have decreased, this number probably has gone down as well, but I do believe that Obama will pressure the Iraqi government to make a "financial contribution" to demonstrate that they appreciate all the dollars we have devoted to the war.

• Rich (St louis): The last five presidential losers have been veterans of foreign wars, and all have lost to non-vets (one reservist). Why does America hate the troops (tongue planted firmly in cheek)??
• Election Impact Guests: Craig Crawford: That is fascinating and strange, isn't it? I think it's more about age than military service in the cases of McCain and Dole. Kerry was Swiftboated, one of the most amazing things i've ever seen -- turning a war record against him somehow.
• Ken Sands, moderator: Question from an audience member: How will President Obama, who promises to "reach across the aisle," manage a Congress that has not been able to work successfully in a bi-partisan manner, especially in a Pelosi-led House?
• Election Impact Guests:

  Doug Pinkham: We used to talk about the president applying pressure through the "bully pulpit." Well, thanks to the Internet Obama now has the "bully Blackberry." The three million people in the Obama campaigns text message database will be enlisted to support the White House's programs through a grassroots effort. At the same time, Obama will create multiple coalitions of moderate Dems and Republicans to counter the Left. He has already made this promise to the Blue Dogs.

• Lola from Penn: What do we do with money we have in the stock market? Do we sell while it is still worth something -- then put it under our beds -- before we have to share with others in the new social sharing government coming our way?
• Election Impact Guests:

  Doug Pinkham: Consult with your financial adviser, not political hacks like us.

• From the audience: Are the independents and moderates still up for grabs in 2012, or have they broken from the Republican platform that continues to reflect the far right of the party?
• Election Impact Guests: Greg Giroux: Elections generally are won in the broad middle of American politics, as neither self-identified Democrats/liberals nor self-described Republicans/conservatives are numerous enough on their own to win elections. I think that political independents will continue to exert substantial influence in the 2010 and 2012 elections and beyond, and that both Democrats and Republicans will fashion and fine-tune their policies and platforms to attract support from this voting bloc.
• From the audience: We have been reluctant to have a frank discussion about race in the decision-making of the American voters. Since you have no minorities on this panel, can you provide (from your perspective) what it means for the country to have an African-American president?
• Election Impact Guests:

  Doug Pinkham: You're right about our panel (and our conference) not being sufficiently diverse in terms of race.

   

  On election night I was struck by the images from Grant Park in Chicago. The camera at one point zoomed in to a shot of Jesse Jackson standing there, listening to the announcement of Obama's victory, with tears streaming down his face. Meanwhile, my wife was at a Democratic victory party in Virginia when the announcement was made, and an African American man standing next to her broke into tears and said to her, "I need to hug someone." She obliged.

   

  From what I've heard, this is a profound moment in history for African-Americans everywhere. It is truly remarkable.

• Audience member: Can you expand on the thought of repudiation of the Republican party's ideology by the public, i.e. moral issues, etc.
• Election Impact Guests:

  Doug Pinkham: It wasn't a repudiation of Republican ideology, but of the party's "brand." In other words, many voters rejected the way Republicans positioned themselves in the election and the way they governed over recent years. In actuality, there are still many Americans with a conservative ideology.

   

  I do think that moderate Republicans are better positioned for success because they will be positioned as "part of the solution" rather than "part of the problem" by the Democrats. But that doesn't mean the GOP will be wise enough to move those folks into top leadership positions in Congress or at the RNC.

• Jonathan Edwards from California: I work on a onshore oil rig and am kinda scared about losing my job because of Obama's victory and the posibillity of the industry slowing down. Should I worry or do I still have a few more years, and how big of an impact does the president have on this?
• Election Impact Guests:

  Doug Pinkham: There will be increased oil drilling as long as the price of oil remains high. The global price will have a lot more impact on your job security than any policy proposed by the White House or Congress. Having said that, there will likely be additional rules or incentives to encourage oil companies who hold federal leases to start producing oil. But this will take years to make a big difference.

   

  If you work in the oil industry, you probably have a more secure job than most people.

• Audience Question: What's the likelihood that Sen. Reid ousts Sen. Byrd from the chairmanship of the Appropriations Committee? Who would be his successor?
• Election Impact Guests: Tom Mann:  Sen. Daniel Inouye.
• Ed from Rockville, MD: Other than Robert Gates, do you think there will be another Republican in Obama's cabinet?
• Election Impact Guests: Tom Mann:  I expect several Republicans to be selected for the Cabinet, including the current VA Secretary, possibly Sen Lugar or Sen Hagel at State, Colin Powell at DOE or another domestic assignment.
• Audience member: Harry Reid says that if Sen. Stevens is reelected, the Senate will throw him out. Would one of the consequences of that be the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as his replacement?
• Election Impact Guests: Tom Mann: Gov Palin might well appoint herself to the Senate.
  
  
  Moderator Ken Sands: I think she may have to resign and have the Lt. Gov., now the new governor, appoint her, which they could easily work out. But it's not really that simple. Read more here and here.
  
• From the audience: What happens to John McCain?
• Election Impact Guests: David Hawkings: He has two more years to go before he's up for re-election to a fifth term. He probably won't run again, but in the interim he'll be out to burnish his legacy as a maverick and a deal-cutter. So I'd expect that he'll be waving his hand in the air and trying to get President Obama's attention as a potential partner in something big. The only question is whether his Republican colleagues will let him do it.
• Audience member: In the past several elections, much attention was placed on the voting preferences of veterans and active military. What does exit polling suggest for these groups in this election?
• Election Impact Guests: Tom Mann:  Military veterans were more divided than many thought.  Roughly 55 percent voted for McCain, 45 percent for Obama.
• From the audience: Will the Democrats keep Harry Reid as the Senate Majority Leader? Shouldn't they get rid of him based on his results in 2007 and 2008?
• Election Impact Guests: David Hawkings: They will keep him. Yes, it's true that his two years as Minority Leader (2005-06) were more successful than his first two years as Majority Leader. But he's never had the opportunity/challenge of managing a caucus as big as the one he's abour to inherit -- 57 or maybe 58 seats instead of the 51 of the past two years. Sure, he's perhaps the least telegenic Senate floor leader in modern times, but his colleagues appreciate his tactical and strategic savvy and are ready to give him another shot -- especially with Dick Durbin of Illinois, who's been the main conduit between Obama and the Senate Democrats, in the No. 2 job of whip.
• Jenny from Allentown, PA: If we are attacked 9/11 style while Barack Obama is president, how do you think he'll react? With military force, or do you think he would try another approach?
• Election Impact Guests: Tom Mann:  I think Obama would first be sure who carried out the attack and then take military action to respond.  The nature of that attack would depend on what is possible to achieve but this would be no time for diplomacy.  The latter would be part of a more ambitious proactive approach to terrorism.
• From the audience: On Tuesday at 7:12 p.m., Patrick Buchanan said on MSNBC that conservatism is dead. Do you agree?
• Election Impact Guests: David Hawkings: The conservatives sure don't think so, and neither do I. In fact, if anything, it will be the conservatives who will use McCain's defeat to reassert their primacy in the GOP with the argument that their generally iconoclastic nominee led the Republicans to lose their way. The battle for the next four years will be between the social conservative wing and the economically conservative wing. It's the so-called Rockefeller Republicans who appear to have died as a political species. Remember there's now only one Republican Congressman from East of the Hudson River.
• From the audience: With one party controlling the executive and legislative branches, what's the outlook for increased Congressional oversight of the departments and agencies? Will oversight cease?
• Election Impact Guests: Kathy Rizzo: Oversight of your own party is such a thankless job that the pitbull who has been in charge of it the past two years wants to do something else. Henry A. Waxman, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, is picking a fight with John D. Dingell, chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee. The reason: Dingell's committee gets to write big, important bills, and Waxman's committee gets to keep an eye on how the government of Barack Obama is functioning. Guess which job is more fun.
• From the audience: You referenced the challenge Waxman is mounting to Dingell. What are your thoughts on whether global climate legislation can be passed in the next two years?
• Election Impact Guests:

  Kathy Rizzo: With Dingell in charge, climate-change legislation has to get by a major skeptic to get past square one. Waxman would be more likely to move legislation more quickly. After that, it's up to the Senate, which is full of wild cards.

• From the audience: Will bipartisanship really happen, and what form will it take?
• Election Impact Guests: Ed Epstein: The new president will give it quite a go. He has to change the bitter partisanship of Washington, however, and that will take time and effort. We'll see how he perseveres and whether others in Washington pay a price with the public for resisting his entreaties.
  
  Obama is starting by trying to get Republicans in his cabinet in more than a token role.
  
  In Congress, it will take a monumental effort to reverse long years of higher partisanship, and so far there are no indications of it happening in any meaningful way.
  
• From the audience: Is there any chance the House will not re-up the pay-as-you-go rule?
• Election Impact Guests: Ed Epstein: I can't imagine the House reversing itself on this. Blue Dogs, Pelosi and Hoyer are all major advocates of pay-as-you-go and bitterly criticized the spending policies of the GOP Congress.
• From the audience: What will the GOP do to rebuild itself, and what role will it play?
• Election Impact Guests:

  Katherine Rizzo:  Figuring this out is going to be a hot job for all the displaced Republicans in Washington.  New think tanks will crop up. Old think tanks will reinvigorate their talent lineups. They'll debate Reagan-style Republicanism, the Tom DeLay era, and the relative importance of morality issues and fiscal restraint in building a new governing coalition. They'll point fingers at each other and eventually they'll agree on what they ought to stand for.

• From the audience: Regarding the idea of a $400 billion to $500 billion economic stimulus. Do you think a smaller one during the lame duck session ($60 billion to $70 billion) announced by Speaker Pelosi yesterday is unlikely? Or is it more likely to have one package during the lame duck and another, larger one after January?
• Election Impact Guests: Ed Epstein: Pelosi says there is no point going ahead with a new stimulus package in the lame duck unless President Bush and Senate Republicans agree beforehand. Otherwise, it's an exercise in futility.
  
  And if there were an agreement, there would be one part done in November and the rest would be held over until the new Congress meets. The Democrats might prefer that so they can take credit for the stimulus and have Obama sign it.
• From the audience: What happens to Joe Leiberman?
• Election Impact Guests: Katherine Rizzo: One of our reporters is staking out Harry Reid's office because we're hoping to find out the answer today to just that question.
• From the audience: Do you feel that Joe Biden will be a new kind of vice president, with more responsibilities and influence, especially in the area of foreign policy?
• Election Impact Guests: Ed Epstein: After the Cheney years, Biden will be a more traditional VP. I dont think he wants specific responsibilites in any specific policy areas. He will prefer to be the president's all-around advisor.
  
  Of course, it will only be time before Biden goes out on the speaking circuit (you can only shut him up for so long) and his gaffes will make news. But it looks like he is settling into the role as avuncular, grandfatherly eminence for the new administration.
• From the audience: What are your feelings about theories that the true power during the 111th Congress will be in the House and that the Speaker of the House will have authority over the course of government?
• Election Impact Guests:

  Katherine Rizzo:  For my money, the power rests with those who can stop the progress of legislation.  That means the Senate, not the House, and within the Senate that means those of both parties willing to exercise holds (see Tom Coburn) and Republicans who are willing to give Democrats the votes they need to stop GOP filibusters (see Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Arlen Specter.)

   

• From the audience: What is the future of earmarks in the new Congress and new administration?
• Election Impact Guests: Katherine Rizzo: Earmarks aren't likely to go out of style.  You can probably name in 60 seconds or less every legislator who doesn't want a piece of pork.