Obama: "Honeymoon" still on?

Bob Benenson, editor of CQPolitics.com, is in his 11th campaign cycle of specialized election coverage, having started as a reporter for CQ in 1985, becoming deputy politics editor in 1993 and politics editor in 1998. His reporting staff covers the presidential election and House, Senate and gubernatorial elections in all 50 states.

This discussion is over, but please read the transcript below.

• Moderator: Welcome to the first Live Online chat of the year here at CQPolitics.com. Editor Bob Benenson is standing by -- OK, sitting by -- to take your questions. Let the conversation begin!
  
  
• Bob Benenson:

  Hello, America (and our readers around the world), how are you? I look forward to answering your questions.

   

  One little caveat ... political analysis is my strong suit, but economic analysis, not so much. If it were, I'd have dumped my investments in the nick of time, written a best-selling book on the coming economic calamity and then waited for the Nobel committee to call about my prize.

   

  So, while I'll try to be as helpful as I can about why President Obama and Congress are doing this or not doing that in the debate over the economic stimulus legislation, my answers will be more oriented to the politics of the debate.

   

  Off we go...

• David from Akron Ohio: Well could it be possible if Obama turns out to be another Jimmy Carter that Hillary Clinton could  challenge him again for the nomination in 2012?
  
  
• Bob Benenson:

  We've learned that there's not much in politics that we should completely rule out.

   

  But it seems to me it would take a very sharp downturn in President Obama's popularity and a truly historic rupture within the ranks of his administration and his party to put Hillary Clinton into a position to challenge Obama for the 2012 nomination.

   

  When someone -- even as fierce an erstwhile rival as Clinton was to Obama in the 2008 primaries -- accept a position in the administration, especially one as high-profile as secretary of State, then she has effectively sublimated her personal political ambitions.

   

  It is unimaginable that Clinton or any other Cabinet member would serve Obama faithfully through most of his term and then jump out and try to wrest the nomination from him. So they would have to have a rift so deep that it would prompt her to quit her position.

   

  The big difference with Carter in 1980 is that his intraparty challenger, Ted Kennedy, was never part of Carter's Cabinet or inner circle and was, in fact, a frequent critic of the administration from his seat in the Senate.

• Tony from Los Angeles: Any movement on the nomination of Rep. Hilda Solis to head the Labor Department?
  
  What's really holding up her confirmation?
  
  
• Bob Benenson:

  Karoun Demirjian, CQ's reporter on the labor issues beat, reports that the Senate committee with jurisdiction over Solis' nomination was scheduled to meet even as we are chatting here, and is almost certain to approve her and send her nomination on to the Senate floor "after several weeks of wrangling and delays."

   

  Rep. Solis' House voting record has been strongly supportive of organized labor, a constituency that many Republicans view as a virtual arm of the rival Democratic Party.

   

  So it was predictable that Solis would get a bit of special scrutiny from GOP senators. She did not help her cause during a confirmation hearing Jan. 9 at which she declined to answer questions about her views on some of the most hotly debated labor issues.

   

  Solis' Democratic supporters argued, though, that Republicans allowed Senate committees to proceed on some Obama nominees who were facing serious ethics questions.

• Heath from Maryland: What are the chances of most of the pork being removed from the stimulus bill?
  
  
• Bob Benenson:

  It appears that congressional Republicans have succeeded at scoring some political points by turning a spotlight on some of the line-item spending in the hugely expensive stimulus bill.

   

  The House version of the bill drew no Republican votes, and their Senate counterparts have taken a public stand that they won't support the measure unless it is trimmed of spending they say will not have a direct stimulative effect on the economy -- including a number of items they label as "pork barrel spending."

   

  Since President Obama has promised to reach out to Republicans on this and other legislative measures -- and since the GOP, even with its much reduced minority, might be able to sustain a filibuster if they don't think their concerns are being addressed, it seems likely that at least some of the projects that have been the subject of controversy will end up on Congress' cutting room floor.

   

  Of course, "pork barrel" has always been in the eye of the beholder, and is usually defined as government spending that takes place in someone else's state or district.

   

• KJ in DC: Justice Ginsburg unfortunately is very ill.
  
  If she steps down, President Obama will have the rare chance to appoint a new justice.
  
  What are the potential political ramifications for choosing either a liberal or moderate justice this early in his administration?
  
  
• Bob Benenson:

  First, our thoughts and hopes for a recovery are with Justice Ginsburg, who was reported today to have undergone surgery for pancreatic cancer.

   

  There is little doubt that President Obama will, for whatever reasons, have to fill at least one and probably more seats on the Supreme Court. And there are very few things he will do that are as inherently freighted with the possibility of partisan and ideological conflict.

   

  If Obama, an abortion rights supporter, were to nominate a new justice with a public record of supporting abortion rights, then social conservative activists will accuse him of applying a "litmus test" on the issue.

   

  If he were to pick a nominee whose views on this issue are more nuanced or vague, liberal activists would accuse him of abandoning them. And you can take the word "abortion" out of that conundrum above and replace it with just about any of society's hot-button issues.

   

  In general, an Obama nomination of someone regarded as having clearly liberal views would be seen as a reward to the Democratic Party base that rallied strongly to elect him as president, while a more centrist pick would be seen as another effort by Obama to reach out beyond Democratic Party lines.

   

  One thing that seems certain is that if Justice Ginsburg -- currently the only woman on the Supreme Court -- were to leave, Obama would be bound to strongly consider a woman to replace her.

   

  There could be other demographic considerations as well. Of the nine current justices, none is a Hispanic. The only African-American justice is the strongly conservative Clarence Thomas, who is not popular among the nation's black constituency.

• Dave from Allston MA: Mr. Benenson: Do you believe the contiuned inability of the Administration to "win the spin" will lead to a political loss even with final passage of a stimulus bill?
  
  
• Bob Benenson:

  President Obama won his election last November, overcoming historic obstacles in doing so, because he is a very adept politician.

   

  So if the final result on the stimulus bill is a negotiated compromise acceptable to at least some Republicans in the Senate (and also in the House when a new vote is held on the revised measure), then you can expect the White House to spin it as proof that the president is acting as promised to listen to Republicans and independents and incorporate their concerns into his policymaking and efforts to push legislation.

   

  I think there's a pretty good chance that spin would be effective.

   

  That doesn't mean this can't be a "win-win" with Republicans taking credit for trimming fat from the bill and acting as fiscal stewards for the nation's taxpayers.

   

  Ultimately, though, the winners and losers on the stimulus measure, should it be enacted, will be judged based on whether the public perceives that it is working to create jobs and ameliorate the impact of this historic economic downturn we are in.

   

  My favorite take on this during the past campaign was by Saturday Night Live comedian Kenan Thompson. He portrayed a supposedly eminent economist who, when asked what needs to be done about the economic crisis, repeatedly shouted the phrase, "Fix it!" Just fix it. I thought that pretty much summed up the public's consensus....

• Eugene from Beltsville: Robert, How long can Minnesota be without a second Senator?
  
  Can the governor intervene if the stalemate lasts for an inordinate amount of time?
  
  In this sort of situation, who pays for all the recounts and legal wrangling and can you approximate a cost?
• Bob Benenson:

  Norm Coleman, who was the incumbent senator seeking re-election last November in Minnesota, is pursing a court case that he hopes will ultimately reverse the state election canvassing board's ruling that Democratic nominee Al Franken won the contest by 225 votes out of more than 2.9 million cast.

   

  That ruling came at the end of a long recount encumbered by controversies over whether or not thousands of disputed ballots should have been counted.

   

  I can't attest to how much that recount and the subsequent legal actions have cost Minnesota taxpayers.

   

  But a state law actually required the recount because the initial post-election canvass -- which showed Coleman with an equally tiny lead over Franken -- was way under the threshold margin of one-half of 1 percentage point separating the candidates.

   

  Both Coleman and Franken have been receiving contributions for a legal fund to pursue their recount- and lawsuit-related actions, and each undoubtedly has spent millions on these efforts by now.

   

  It appears at this point that leaders of both parties have decided to just let the legal process play itself out -- something that may take a few more weeks -- while leaving vacant Minnesota's second seat. Some legal experts believe that Minnesota Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty has the authority to appoint an interim senator until the Franken-Coleman dispute is resolved, but he has not done so and appears unlikely to make such a move.

   

  In answer to another question, yes, the state's one current senator, Democrat Amy Klobuchar, appears to have been a big hit with her comedy routine at a dinner held last night here in Washington.

• E F Hodal in Adelphi: Dear Mr. Benenson, It is hard for me to get comfortable with the RNC's choice of Michael Steele.
  
  We are to believe that they picked the very best person available for the position, yet we have the uber-Republican, Rush Limbaugh, mocking Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama as "all about race."
  
  Perhaps I've become cynical but isn't that what Mr. Steele's selection is all about?
• Bob Benenson:

  Well, you can't say the Republican Party is completely ignoring the "change" theme that Democrat Barack Obama rode into the White House.

   

  The most un-cynical explanation I can give is that the Republicans have come to a recognition that it cannot come back after two consecutive disastrous election cycles as a party that gets nearly all of its votes from socially conservative white people.

   

  Many people on the Democratic side attribute their party's big rebound in part to the "50-state strategy" promoted by Howard Dean during his chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee, which emphasized reviving state and local Democratic party organizations in places (many of them conservative-leaning) where the party had not been competitive.

   

  For the GOP, rebuilding from the grass roots in places where Republican Party hasn't been competitive of late will be a necessary ingredient in any formula for revival, and Steele undoubtedly intends to try to establish some Republican footholds in minority communities that have now long viewed the party with antipathy.

   

  Such outreach will only be successful, though, if it persuades minorities that the Republican Party is on their side -- no small task.

   

  It's also worth noting that Steele is regarded by many observers as an energetic and even charismatic campaigner. Since he was running in a field of low-key figures, none of whom was even remotely viewed as a strong front-runner, it could be that Steele -- a former Maryland lieutenant governor who ran a vigorous though losing bid for U.S. Senate in that state in 2006 -- was just simply a better candidate than any of his RNC rivals.

• Moderator: Thanks for joining us today, everybody, and thanks for sharing your insights, Bob.
• Bob Benenson:

  My pleasure. Sorry to those of you whose questions I did not get to.

  I'll be back soon.